Abstract:
It often seems as though papers bearing titles in the form of a question end with ambiguous answers. Here the situation is different: the outer Kuiper belt does have a definite future, although one of an unknown duration.
Simulations provide two distinct, compelling reasons.
First, mean motion resonances in the outer belt [beyond the 1:2 resonance at 47.76 AU] are amazingly "sticky": in almost all cases, bodies captured in them from regions closer to Neptune during that planet's outward migration, remain trapped for 4.6 byrs. Most captured orbits are chaotic and so will eventually escape, but there's no reason to believe that all outer belt resonances will empty in the near future.
Second, in determining capture probabilities for various resonances, we find that the first order 1:2 resonance is quite efficient, but, in clear contrast to higher order ones in the outer belt, nearly half of its victims have escaped during 4.6 byrs. Most of bodies remain in unstable orbits in the outer belt, typically for several hundred million years before being expelled well beyond 100 AU or colliding with a major planet. Other inner belt resonances, although capturing less efficiently than 1:2, behave in the same fashion. Thus the outer belt has a two component, long-term population, one with members lying semi-permanently in one of about 6 resonances and another that is far more temporary, but whose source provides a continuous and ready resupply.
The final eccentricity distribution of this combined population closely matches the observed one as Malhotra and Hahn have noted, but the inclination distribution is a better approximation to it than is often claimed, a fact that probably should not be ignored when considering an origin for what has been labeled "the scattered disk".
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Citation
Franklin, Fred A., Ph.D. and Soper, Paul R., Ph.D. (Contributing Author); Bernard Haisch (Topic Editor). 2009. "The Influence of Mean Motion Resonances on the Outer Kuiper Belt: Does the Outer Kuiper Belt have a Future?" In: Encyclopedia of the Cosmos. Eds. Bernard Haisch and Joakim F. Lindblom (Redwood City, CA: Digital Universe Foundation). [First published January 6, 2009].
<http://www.cosmosportal.org/articles/view/136468/>
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Abstract:
It often seems as though papers bearing titles in the form of a question end with ambiguous answers. Here the situation is different: the outer Kuiper belt does have a definite future, although one of an unknown duration.
Simulations provide two distinct, compelling reasons.
First, mean motion resonances in the outer belt [beyond the 1:2 resonance at 47.76 AU] are amazingly "sticky": in almost all cases, bodies captured in them from regions closer to Neptune during that planet's outward migration, remain trapped for 4.6 byrs. Most captured orbits are chaotic and so will eventually escape, but there's no reason to believe that all outer belt resonances will empty in the near future.
Second, in determining capture probabilities for various resonances, we find that the first order 1:2 resonance is quite efficient, but, in clear contrast to higher order ones in the outer belt, nearly half of its victims have escaped during 4.6 byrs. Most of bodies remain in unstable orbits in the outer belt, typically for several hundred million years before being expelled well beyond 100 AU or colliding with a major planet. Other inner belt resonances, although capturing less efficiently than 1:2, behave in the same fashion. Thus the outer belt has a two component, long-term population, one with members lying semi-permanently in one of about 6 resonances and another that is far more temporary, but whose source provides a continuous and ready resupply.
The final eccentricity distribution of this combined population closely matches the observed one as Malhotra and Hahn have noted, but the inclination distribution is a better approximation to it than is often claimed, a fact that probably should not be ignored when considering an origin for what has been labeled "the scattered disk".
Download/Read the Entire Article (PDF) »
Citation
Franklin, Fred A., Ph.D. and Soper, Paul R., Ph.D. (Contributing Author); Bernard Haisch (Topic Editor). 2009. "The Influence of Mean Motion Resonances on the Outer Kuiper Belt: Does the Outer Kuiper Belt have a Future?" In: Encyclopedia of the Cosmos. Eds. Bernard Haisch and Joakim F. Lindblom (Redwood City, CA: Digital Universe Foundation). [First published January 6, 2009].
<http://www.cosmosportal.org/articles/view/136468/>
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